| Prohibition & the Crash |
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| Failed theories: a rehash of some unconvincing explanations, and one or two good ones |
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| Richard Bookstaber came up with two observations that match the facts.
The first is that there is never a single cause but rather a nexus of events
close together in time which precipitate every major crash. The second
is his analogy with cockroach antennae as a mechanism for detecting threats
and taking flight. This may matchthe strategy adopted by victims of taxation
and exploiters of the economic dislocations brought about by sumptuary
and looter laws. His book is titled A Demon of Our Own Design. |
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| Ben Bernanke's theories are couched entirely in terms of transcendental
functions, with no relation whatsoever to any discernible fact or event.
Since they come out of nowhere, that is where they lead. |
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| Elmus Wicker assembles the most useful data, but his approach is to so
define panics and crashes as to make them go away. Nice trick if you can
make it work--and teach the Fed. According to Wicker, there were only perhaps
three such crises, all of them caused by the deus-ex-machina of loss of
confidence arising from nowhere, from no identifiable cause. |
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| Peter Temin was fairly lucid in confessing not to know the causes. In his
second book, however, he reverses thrust and claims the crash was the result
of a shortage of socialist policies. |
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| Ayn Rand--who married in 1929--came up with the best explanation. It is
based on observable facts and works for nearly all major crashes. It is
condensed in the "money speech" in Atlas Shrugged, and again set forth in the preamble to the stage version of "The Night of January Sixteenth." January 16, 1920, incidentally, was the day the Volstead Act for enforcement of the prohibition amendment went into effect. |
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| Herbert Hoover denied the tariff act had anything to do with it "because
it was only passed afterward." This same evasion was used in 1893
to obfuscate causes, and loses sight of Baruch's definition of a speculator.
What Congress did while planning the tariff act had important economic
effects in triggering the Crash, but mystical and altruistic policies were
what created the Great Depression. |
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| My explanation states that the crash and most panics resulted from using
the 16th Amendment and the revenue laws to prop up the 18th at the expense
of the 4th and 5th Amendments, i.e. freedom, hence, the economy. But the
interesting part is how major players in the economy found a way to use
the 18th amendment and its laws to circumvent the 16th. While they did
the economy grew as it had before 1912. |
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